• Are the Jaguars the biggest regression candidate in the NFL?

• Can the Texans get to L.A. with C.J. Stroud?

• Are the Colts a threat if they can stay healthy?

• Can the Titans turn things around under Robert Saleh?

I hope you enjoy!

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Head Coach: Mike LaFleur
Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett
Defensive Coordinator: Nick Rallis
Special Teams Coordinator: Michael Ghobrial

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 3-14)

The Cardinals entered the 2025 season as a lot of people’s sleeper pick for the year (I won’t name names, but one of them wrote this breakdown).

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, things unravelled pretty quickly. They finished the year 3-14 and ultimately fired head coach Jonathan Gannon at the end of the season.

To be fair, injuries played a major role in their 2025 season going down the toilet. Their top two running backs were done for the year just 4 weeks into the season. Quarterback Kyler Murray also didn’t play again after Week 5.

That would explain why their run game, which had been one of the best in the NFL the two years prior, ranked 31st in the league.

Their defense didn’t provide much help either, ranking 29th in points allowed, 24th against the pass, 25th against the run, and near the bottom of the league in too many other important categories.

The Cardinals hired Mike LaFleur to take over as head coach this offseason. His first order of action will be to get the offense turned around.

Key Additions

QB Carson Beck (3rd Rd, 65th Overall)
RB Jeremiyah Love (1st Rd, 3rd Overall)
RB Tyler Allgeier
WR Kendrick Bourne
WR Reggie Virgil (5th Rd, 143rd Overall)
TE Teagan Quitoriano
LG Isaac Seumalo
RT Elijah Wilkinson
OT Matt Pryor
OT Oli Udoh
OG Chase Bisontis (2nd Rd, 34th Overall)

DL Roy Lopez
DL Andrew Billings
DL Jonah Williams
DL Kaleb Proctor (4th Rd, 104th Overall)
LB Jack Gibbens
S Andrew Wingard
S Isaiah Oliver

Key Losses

QB Kyler Murray
RB Michael Carter
RB Emari Demercado
WR Greg Dortch
WR Zay Jones
LG Evan Brown
RT Kelvin Beachum
OT Jonah Williams
OG Will Hernandez

DL Dalvin Tomlinson
DL Calais Campbell
DL PJ Mustipher
LB Akeem Davis-Gaither
S Jalen Thompson
S Darren Hall

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Can the run game keep the Cardinals competitive?
There are a lot of questions with this team. One thing that doesn’t seem to be in doubt, however, is that the run game will be the foundation of this offense. That’s what Mike Lafleur wants to do, and that’s what the Cardinals signaled by taking running back Jeremiyah Love with the 3rd overall pick.

Regardless of your stance on taking running backs that early in the draft, the fact of the matter is that Love is now on the Cardinals’ roster. So they’re going to use him.

Love is a different cat. We got a few glimpses of that in his preseason debut:

He can do it all as a running back. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and turn small gains into big ones. He can align in the slot and on the perimeter, both to create coverage indicators for the quarterback and to create mismatch opportunities. He’s also good in pass protection.

The bottom line is that the Cardinals can lean on him to be the foundation of their offense, and while I don’t think that will lead to them being any good this year, it will keep them in more games than you think.

Unfortunately, Love has a high ankle sprain that could lead to the Cardinals holding him out of some early games or slow-playing his return to the lineup. I’d expect him to start making an impact in October and beyond.

Can Marvin Harrison put it all together?
One reason to be optimistic about the Cardinals is that they do have some really good weapons on offense.

Aside from Love, Trey McBride is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the NFL, and he’s a matchup nightmare.

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Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan
Offensive Coordinator: Klay Kubiak
Defensive Coordinator: Raheem Morris
Special Teams Coordinator: Brant Boyer

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 12-5)

The 49ers suffered a ridiculous number of season-ending injuries last year and were without many of their key players on both sides of the ball for significant periods of time.

Nick Bosa’s season ended after just 3 games. Fred Warner was done after just 6. 11th overall pick Mykel Williams was done after 9. Tight end George Kittle tore his Achilles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

Quarterback Brock Purdy also missed 8 games throughout the year as did wide receiver Ricky Pearsall.

Still, they won 13 games, including a road playoff win over the defending champion Eagles.

This may have been the finest coaching job of Kyle Shanahan’s career given all of the injuries. And even with back-up quarterback Mac Jones under center for half of the season, the 49ers passing game was outstanding, ranking 5th in passing yards and 6th in net passing yards per attempt.

The defense also managed to finish 13th in points allowed despite having no pass rush (32nd in sacks) and back-ups in key positions.

A 9-8 season would have been impressive. The fact that they were playing for the #1 seed in the NFC in Week 18 tells you everything you need to know about Shanahan as a head coach.

Key Additions

RB Kaelon Black (3rd Rd, 90th Overall)
WR Mike Evans
WR Deebo Samuel
WR De’Zhaun Stribling (2nd Rd, 33rd Overall)
WR Christian Kirk
LG Robert Jones
OG Carver Willis (4th Rd, 127th Overall)
OT Enrique Cruz (5th Rd, 179th Overall)
OG Brett Toth
OT Vederian Lowe

DL Osa Odighizuwa
DL Gracen Halton (4th Rd, 107th Overall)
EDGE Romello Height (3rd Rd, 70th Overall)
EDGE Quinton Bell
LB Dre Greenlaw
LB Jaden Dugger (5th Rd, 154th Overall)
CB Jack Jones
CB Nate Hobbs
CB Ephesians Prysock (4th Rd, 139th Overall)
S Ashtyn Davis

Key Losses

RB Brian Robinson Jr.
WR Jauan Jennings
WR Kendrick Bourne
WR Skyy Moore
LG Spencer Burford
OG Ben Bartch
C Matt Hennessy

DL Kalia Davis
DL Jordan Elliott
DL Kevin Givens
ED Bryce Huff
ED Clelin Ferrell
ED Yetur Gross-Matos
ED Robert Beal
LB Dee Winters
LB Curtis Robinson
S Jason Pinnock

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Can the 49ers overcome injuries once again?
It seems to happen every year with the 49ers, and they’re already off to a bad start to the 2026 season.

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Head Coach: Sean McVay
Offensive Coordinator: Nate Scheelhaase
Defensive Coordinator: Chris Shula
Special Teams Coordinator: Bubba Ventrone

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 12-5)

The Rams fell just short of reaching the Super Bowl last season, losing the NFC Championship Game 31-27. The had their chances too, including 3 plays inside the Seahawks’ 10-yard line with just 5 minutes remaining and the opportunity to take the lead. They couldn’t get into the end zone, though.

Along the way, the Rams leaned on the right arm of 37-year old Matthew Stafford, who had the best year of his 17-year career. Stafford threw for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns on the way to his first MVP award.

The Rams also had two studs at wide receiver (as Sean McVay would call them) in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Adams led the NFL with 14 TD receptions, and Nacua led the league with 129 receptions and 107.2 receiving yards per game.

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But this was a well-balanced offense that didn’t just operate through it’s passing game. They ranked 7th in the league in rushing and 2nd in percentage of runs gaining 4 yards or more. It’s no surprise that they had the top-ranked offense in the NFL.

The defense was formidable as well, finishing 10th in points allowed, 4th in pressure percentage, and 5th in takeaways. Defensive coordinator Chris Shula also deployed some great scheme and disguise to get after the quarterback and create confusion:

Ultimately, the Rams just weren’t quite good enough on defense in a few key areas, and that was probably the biggest reason that the Seahawks were hoisting the Lombardi at the end of the season instead of them.

So GM Les Snead spent this offseason making some gigantic moves to try and ensure that the same thing won’t happen again in 2026.

Key Additions

QB Ty Simpson (1st Rd, 13th Overall)
TE Max Klare (2nd Rd, 61st Overall)
RT Keagen Trost (3rd Rd, 93rd Overall)

EDGE Myles Garrett
CB Trent McDuffie
CB Jaylen Watson

Key Losses

WR Tutu Atwell
RT Rob Havenstein

EDGE Jared Verse
EDGE Nick Hampton
CB Cobie Durant
CB Darious Williams
CB Ahkello Witherspoon

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

What holes remain for the Rams?
The Rams’ biggest weaknesses last season were their run defense, cornerback room, and special teams.

The defense ranked 21st in completions of 20+ yards and 22nd in air yards per completion. Their run D ranked 19th in rushing yards per attempt and 17th in % of runs gaining 4 yards. Their special teams ranked 26th in the NFL in DVOA according to FTN Fantasy.

On top of that, their weaknesses each played a significant role in them failing to reach the Super Bowl.

Their secondary got torched in the NFC Championship Game as Sam Darnold picked them apart for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns.

That game was played in Seattle, a difficult environment to win, because of the Rams’ Thursday night collapse against the Seahawks a month earlier.

In that game, their run defense allowed 171 yards on the ground and their special teams completely failed them.

The Rams had a 30-14 lead with 8 and a half minutes remaining and inexplicably punted the ball in the middle of the field to one of the most dangerous returners in the game in Rashid Shaheed. The results were predictable, a 58-yard punt return TD that spearheaded the comeback.

L.A. also missed a go-ahead field goal late in that game.

The Rams addressed each of these areas this offseason. First, they added cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, addressing the biggest positional area of need:

Then they made the move of the offseason, trading for Myles Garrett:

Garrett addresses multiple areas. Not only is he the best pass rusher in the game (which will invariably help out that secondary), he is also very good against the run:

That’s an area where he’s an upgrade over Jared Verse, who was sent to Cleveland in exchange for Garrett.

The Rams also hired Bubba Ventrone to be their new Special Teams Coordinator. Ventrone spent several years as both a coach and a player learning from the GOAT, Bill Belichick. And he has a good track record as the Colts Special Teams Coordinator from 2018-22. Although his special teams units in Cleveland recently weren’t exactly up to snuff.

The bottom line is that the Rams weren’t messing around this offseason. They addressed their their three biggest weaknesses with a level of urgency you don’t see from most franchises. We won’t know the extent to which they filled their holes until the season progresses, though.

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Is Aaron Donald actually returning, and if so, how effective will he be?
It seems like the Rams trading for Myles Garrett was the exact thing that made Aaron Donald decide he might want to come out of retirement and join what appears to be a “super team.”

He’s worked out for the Rams multiple times, and it doesn’t seem like he’d be doing that only to ultimately say, “no thanks, I’m gonna stay retired.”

So if he does return, the question becomes how effective will he be?

I’ve seen all the videos you’ve seen showing Donald appearing to still be in great physical shape. But there’s a difference between great physical shape and great football shape. And the NFL is the epitome of “if you don’t use it, you lose it.” It’s very tough to come back and be effective after being out of the game for a while for any reason.

So can he still lean on defenders and drive them back into the quarterback? Can he still hold off blockers in the run game? I have no doubts about his quickness and athleticism, but will he have the same level of explosiveness and power? And can he last a full season?

To me, if he does come back, the wise move would be to ease him in and keep him fresh until the second half of the season. Maybe he continues his workouts, gets back into football shape, and joins the team as a fresh body for the stretch run?

Whatever happens, I’m so curious to see how it goes. Because I also wouldn’t put it past Donald to come back and be close to as good as he was a few years ago:

What new wrinkles will Sean McVay have for the rest of the NFL?
Last season, Sean McVay introduced everyone to the use of “13” personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) as a foundation of an offense. The approach put considerable pressure on defenses, as you can see in this breakdown:

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Head Coach: Mike Macdonald
Offensive Coordinator: Brian Fleury
Defensive Coordinator: Aden Durde
Special Teams Coordinator: Jay Harbaugh

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 14-3)

The Seahawks had a pretty good 2025 season.

Best defense in the NFL. 3rd-ranked offense. #1 seed in the NFC. Won the Super Bowl in dominating fashion…Not much to complain about with this team.

Like most Super Bowl champs, the Seahawks were able to raise the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season because they could win in a variety of ways. Just think about their playoff run.

They pummeled the 49ers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs from start to finish. Their special teams set the tone when Rashid Shaheed took the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. Both sides of the ball then dominated on their way to a 41-6 win.

In the NFC Championship Game, Seattle’s 31-27 victory came courtesy of Sam Darnold’s right arm. He and the offense led the way.

Then in Super Bowl LX, with the offense struggling to finish drives, the defense and special teams took control. Jason Myers kicked 5 field goals. The defense absolutely smothered the Patriots, holding them to just 51 total yards in the first half. Then they forced 3 critical turnovers in the second half that directly led to 17 points, including a game-sealing pick-6.

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But while all three phases played a huge role, it’s safe to say that this team’s identity was its defense.

They were 1st in points allowed, 2nd in yards per play, 1st in rushing yards per attempt, 2nd in net passing yards per attempt, 1st on 3rd down, 5th in the red zone, 6th in pressure %, 7th in sacks, 6th in takeaways.

They were the only team that had 5 D-linemen with more than 40 pressures during the regular season (DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, Boye Mafe).

They didn’t blitz often, but when they did, they were the #1 defense based on passer rating.

They didn’t allow offenses to attack downfield, ranking 1st in air yards per completion allowed.

They allowed the fewest runs of 10 yards or more.

Seriously, what were offenses supposed to do?

And the scary thing for the rest of the league is that they are returning basically the same team on both sides of the ball.

Key Additions

RB Jadarian Price (1st Rd, 32nd Overall)
RB Emanuel Wilson
OT Bobby Hart
OG Beau Stephens (5th Rd, 148th Overall)

EDGE Dante Fowler
CB Julian Neal (3rd Rd, 99th Overall)
CB Noah Igbinoghene
CB Trevon Diggs
S Bud Clark (2nd Rd, 64th Overall)
S Rodney Thomas II

Key Losses

RB Kenneth Walker III

EDGE Boye Mafe
CB Riq Woolen
S Coby Bryant

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Read more

• Can Bryce Young make a big jump?

• If the Bucs’ defense is back, is the division theirs to lose?

• Why this season looks bleak for the Falcons…

• The Saints actually have a chance…

I hope you enjoy!

Simpson completed 21 of 25 passes for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he looked good in the process.

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The best aspect of his performance is that you saw a little bit of everything, including improvement in some of those areas where he struggled in college.

Sean McVay started his outing by taking advantage of Simpson’s athleticism and comfortability throwing on the run. He called boots on 4 of his first 5 pass attempts. That allowed him to settle in by getting him out of the pocket where he could make some risk-free throws:

At Alabama, I thought Simpson needed to do a better job in the quick passing game of getting the ball out in rhythm and on time. Perhaps that’s been a point of emphasis with McVay in practice, because I thought Simpson was really good in this area on Saturday.

On this first example, watch him peak left and eliminate his two routes to that side almost immediately during his drop before hitting his back foot and getting the ball out to the other side:

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Head Coach: Robert Saleh
Offensive Coordinator: Brian Daboll
Defensive Coordinator: Gus Bradley
Special Teams Coordinator: John Fassel

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 3-14)

2025 could not have gone worse for the Titans. Instead of providing their rookie QB with a stable situation he could properly develop in, they gave him the exact opposite.

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The Titans fired head coach Brian Callahan just 6 games into the season. Mike McCoy took over as interim head coach to finish out the year, and then Robert Saleh was hired in January.

Which means Cam Ward has now had as many head coaches in 1 year in the NFL as Tom Brady did in 23 seasons.

It’s not what you want for your franchise QB.

Check out Tennessee’s 2025 numbers to get a feel for how ugly it was:

Along the way, the Titans didn’t surround Ward with much support. The protection ranked 30th in pressure % allowed. The run game ranked 30th as well.

Titans receivers didn’t provide much help either.

They couldn’t stretch the field (The Titans ranked 27th in air yards per completion and 25th in completions of 20 yards or more).

They couldn’t do much when they had the ball in their hands (24th in yards after catch per completion).

They also weren’t very reliable (11th in drop %).

It’s tough to gauge exactly how Ward performed given what he had around him.

Defensively, Tennessee had an equally rough season, finishing in the bottom-5 in points and yards per play allowed. They did a decent job of stopping the run, but by and large, they were just as disastrous as the other side of the ball.

As a result, the Titans overhauled damn near the entire roster heading into 2026, as you can see below.

Key Additions

RB Nicholas Singleton (5th Rd, 165th Overall)
RB Michael Carter
WR Carnell Tate (1st Rd, 4th Overall)
WR Wan’Dale Robinson
TE Daniel Bellinger
TE Kylen Granson
C Austin Schlottmann
RG Cordell Volson
OT Austin Deculus
OG Fernando Carmona (5th Rd, 142nd Overall)

DL John Franklin-Myers
DL Jordan Elliott
DL Solomon Thomas
DL Jalyn Holmes
DL Khalen Saunders
EDGE Jermaine Johnson II
EDGE Jacob Martin
EDGE Keldric Faulk (1st Rd, 31st Overall)
LB Anthony Hill (2nd Rd, 60th Overall)
LB Mohamoud Diabate
CB Alontae Taylor
CB Cordale Flott
CB Joshua Williams
S Tony Adams

Key Losses

WR Van Jefferson
WR James Proche
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
C Lloyd Cushenberry III
RG Kevin Zeitler
OT Oli Udoh
C Corey Levin

DL Sebastian Joseph-Day
DL T’Vondre Sweat
DL James Lynch
EDGE Jihad Ward
EDGE Arden Key
CB Darrell Baker
CB Jalyn Armour-Davis
CB L’Jarius Sneed
S Xavier Woods
S Quandre Diggs

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

What can we expect from Cam Ward in his second season?
Ward was too imprecise throughout his rookie season. He completed less than 60% of his passes for an astonishingly low 5.9 yards per attempt, which ranked 33rd in the NFL.

He also threw just 15 touchdown passes. And while it was encouraging that he finished the year with only 7 interceptions, he did turn the ball over 14 times (Tied for 7th-most in the NFL).

You can blame the lack of help around him for much of his poor performance, but not all of it. In particular, his ball placement was sporadic at times:

The undisciplined nature to his game and his desire to make big plays got him in trouble often:

It was a messy season overall.

The good news for Tennessee is that Ward showed improvement and seemed to settle in as the season progressed.

Through his first 9 games, Ward completed just 57.6% of his passes, threw 5 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and had a 72.1 passer rating.

But through his final 8 games, he completed 62.4% of his passes, had a 10-1 TD-INT ratio, a 90.0 passer rating, and cut his sack rate nearly in half.

And as we all saw last season, the Titans have a ton to work with since Ward is a very physically gifted quarterback:

It’s all in there. But the situation he was in last year was not ideal for drawing it out. We’ll see if that changes this season.

Check out my full Cam Ward 2025 breakdown below:

Do the Titans have enough around Cam Ward to help him flourish?
A year ago, no wide receiver on the Titans’ roster had more than 48 receptions. GM Mike Borgonzi made sure to rectify that this offseason.

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Head Coach: Shane Steichen
Offensive Coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter
Defensive Coordinator: Lou Anarumo
Special Teams Coordinator: Brian Mason

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 8-9)

The Colts started last season 8-2 and appeared to be a lock to make the playoffs. Then they lost their final 7 games.

They went from scoring 32.1 points per game and allowing just 20.6 during that 8-2 start to scoring just 20.7 and allowing 29.4 during their 7-game losing streak.

It was, to say the least, a disastrous finish to a promising season.

Injuries certainly played a huge role, as key players like quarterback Daniel Jones, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, and cornerback Sauce Gardner (who they traded for during the season) missed significant time.

They were so banged up that they turned to 44-year old Philip Rivers (who hadn’t played since the 2020 season) to start 3 of their final 4 games.

It’s hard to analyze how good or bad the Colts truly were last year based on how unlucky they were in the health department. Although, that’s a part of the game. And it will be a a major question for the Colts in terms of projecting 2026.

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Key Additions

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
OG Jalen Farmer (4th Rd, 113th Overall)

DL Colby Wooden
DL Derrick Nnadi
DL Jerry Tillery
EDGE Arden Key
EDGE George Gumbs Jr. (5th Rd, 156th Overall)
EDGE Micheal Clemons
LB Akeem Davis-Gaither
LB CJ Allen (2nd Rd, 53rd Overall)
LB Bryce Boettcher (4th Rd, 135th Overall)
CB Cam Taylor-Britt
S A.J. Haulcy (3rd Rd, 78th Overall)
S Jonathan Owens
S Juanyeh Thomas

Key Losses

RB Ameer Abdullah
WR Michael Pittman Jr.
RT Braden Smith
C Danny Pinter

DL Neville Gallimore
EDGE Kwity Paye
EDGE Samson Ebukam
EDGE Tyquan Lewis
LB Zaire Franklin
LB Germaine Pratt
CB Kenny Moore
S Nick Cross
S Rodney Thomas II

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Can Daniel Jones stay healthy and perform well 2 years in a row?
I’ve said this before, but Daniel Jones has had some of the best performances by a quarterback in NFL history. That sounds weird to say, but it’s true.

During his rookie season, Jones became the first rookie ever to throw for 350 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions in a game. He also tied a record for most games in a rookie season with 4+ TD passes.

In his playoff debut in 2022 with the Giants, Jones became the first quarterback ever to throw for 300+ yards, 2+ TDs, and rush for 70+ yards in a playoff game.

He had a ton of success in his first season with the Colts too.

Jones completed 68% of his passes in 2025, which was the 2nd-best in Colts history, right behind Peyton Manning. And it’s not like he was just dinking and dunking his way to that high completion rate. He averaged 8.0 intended air yards per pass attempt, the 12th-highest rate in the NFL.

During the first 10 games of the season, before Jones fractured his fibula (which he played through for 2+ games), the Colts scored on 57.6% of their drives, which led the NFL.

The talent has always been there for Jones. The health and consistency haven’t been.

After a good rookie campaign in 2019, Jones had 2 underwhelming and injury-riddled seasons.

Then he led the Giants to the playoffs in 2022 before having two more injury-plagued and subpar seasons in ‘23 and ‘24.

Last year, he helped turn the Colts into a top offense in the league before injuries plagued him once again.

And quite frankly, his health is really where you can pinpoint the demise of the 2025 Colts. As mentioned above, they went from scoring 32.1 points per game before he got hurt to averaging just 20.7 over their final 7 games.

In particular, their rushing attack took a huge hit. They averaged 145.3 rushing yards through those first 10 games, good for 3rd-most in the NFL. They were dynamic and could uniquely generate big plays on inside runs like no other team could:

After Jones broke his fibula, he couldn’t factor into the run as much for 2 games. Once he was gone for the year, defenses loaded up to stop Jonathan Taylor and dared the Colts to throw. Indy’s production on the ground was cut in half as they averaged just 79.1 yards over those final 7 games.

The biggest questions for 2026, therefore, are can Jones remain healthy and can he perform at a high level 2 years in a row? The Colts season will hinge on it.

Can the defense play like it did during their 8-2 start?
Similar to the offense, the defense’s season can be broken into two parts. They were a top-10 scoring defense that got after the quarterback during their 8-2 start. The Colts were 7th in sacks and 6th in pressure % through those first 10 games.

But they finished the year 21st in points allowed, 15th in sacks, and 16th in pressure %.

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What you’re looking for, particularly in rookies, is for the traits that you saw on their college tape to show up at the NFL level, just to at least confirm that their game translates.

Fernando Mendoza easily passed that test in his debut on Thursday night.

Mendoza showed good processing and the ability to navigate the quick passing game effectively like we all saw last season at Indiana:

He also showed great ball placement, which you could see pretty clearly on his most impressive throw of the night:

What I love most about that ball is that Mendoza’s receiver settled behind the linebacker. He wasn’t open based on where he was out of his break. But Mendoza saw the soft spot in the coverage and put the ball there, effectively throwing his receiver open. Take another look:

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Does that mean we have a QB controversy on our hands?

Haha, no. Stop it. It’s the preseason. And this was the second half of the first preseason game, to boot.

That said, the Steelers have to be happy with what they saw from their young QB in his first NFL action. And Allar broke down what he saw on his first pass attempt, a 3rd-and-7 that resulted in a 74-yard catch and run.

“I kind of recognized man coverage right away.”

“I really thought I was gonna have the tight end on a crosser, but the hole player sat inside and kind of took that away.”

Read more

• Should we be optimistic about the Steelers’ chances?

• Are the Ravens Super Bowl contenders?

• Is Joe Burrow the new Dan Marino?

• Who should play QB for the Browns?

I hope you enjoy!

Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans
Offensive Coordinator: Nick Caley
Defensive Coordinator: Matt Burke
Special Teams Coordinator: Frank Ross

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 12-5)

For the third straight season since DeMeco Ryans arrived in Houston, the Texans reached the AFC Divisional Round but then came up short.

Last year seemed especially painful, though, because the Texans had the defense to carry them to the Super Bowl if their offense could only do their part. Unfortunately, they couldn’t.

While the offense struggled throughout much of the season, they discovered a successful formula for winning games. They didn’t turn the ball over.

The Texans finished 2nd in the NFL with just 12 giveaways during the regular season. The won their final 9 games and committed just 5 total turnovers in the process. They looked like an unbeatable team entering the postseason if they could just take the 2000 Ravens approach and protect the ball in the playoffs.

They just couldn’t do it, though. Houston committed 8 turnovers in 2 games including 5 in their season-ending loss to the Patriots. One of those turnovers was a terrible pick-6 when the Texans held the lead in the 2nd quarter and had just seemed to take some control of the game.

Houston’s defense held the #2-ranked offense in the NFL to less than 250 yards that afternoon, sacked Drake Maye 5 times, created 3 turnovers, and forced 2 additional fumbles that they couldn’t recover.

Which is why it felt like the offense gave the game and the season away. Specifically, 3rd-year quarterback C.J. Stroud was the main culprit with his 7 turnovers in 2 playoff games.

Spoiler alert: He’s the biggest question entering the 2026 season.

Key Additions

RB David Montgomery
TE Foster Moreau
TE Marlin Klein (2nd Rd, 59th Overall)
LG Wyatt Teller
C Keylan Rutledge (1st Rd, 26th Overall)
RT Braden Smith
OG Febechi Nwaiwu (4th Rd, 106th Overall)
OG Evan Brown

DL Kayden McDonald (2nd Rd, 36th Overall)
DL Logan Hall
EDGE Jadeveon Clowney
EDGE Dominique Robinson
LB Wade Woodaz (4th Rd, 123rd Overall)
LB Marte Mapu
S Reed Blankenship
S Kamari Ramsey (5th Rd, 141st Overall)

Key Losses

RB Nick Chubb
RB Dare Ogunbowale
WR Christian Kirk
TE Harrison Bryant
RT Tytus Howard
OG Juice Scruggs
LG Laken Tomlinson

DL Tim Settle
DL Denico Autry
EDGE Derek Barnett
S Myles Bryant
S K’Von Wallace

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

C.J. Stroud
The Texans’ 4th-year quarterback is hands down the biggest question with this team. The offense as a whole needs to be better, particularly up front, so it’s not all on him. However, the regression in his play has to be a concern for the Texans.

Stroud seemed like a sure thing coming out of his rookie season. He played like a top-10 quarterback and had a level of maturity to his game that was rare to see in a first-year player:

He took a step back in year 2, primarily because of the protection. That season exposed how uncomfortable Stroud was in the pocket with pressure closing and bodies around him (or perhaps it created that element to his game).

Year 3 started off with more of the same as the Texans lost their first 3 games, scoring just 38 total points in the process. Stroud battled through it (and a concussion that kept him out of 3 games in the middle of the season), and bounced back to have a decent year. The playoffs are where everything fell apart.

There was one way for the Texans Offense to approach the playoffs given how dominant their defense was: Do not turn the ball over. Do not take negative plays. Punting is a viable option.

Stroud did the exact opposite.

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Head Coach: Liam Coen
Offensive Coordinator: Grant Udinski
Defensive Coordinator: Anthony Campanile
Special Teams Coordinator: Heath Farwell

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 13-4)

The Jaguars were one of the most surprising teams in the NFL last season. Liam Coen joined Dan Campbell in proving that introductory press conferences have nothing to do with your ability to coach as Jacksonville won 9 more games than the year before on their way to the AFC South division title.

It’s hard to say where the largest turnarounds were from the year before because there were so many on both sides of the ball.

The offense went from 26th in the NFL in scoring to 6th. The defense went from 27th in points allowed to 8th.

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Most notable was Jacksonville’s ability to stop the run and generate turnovers. The Jaguars had the #1 run defense in the NFL last season after ranking 25th the year before, and they generated the 2nd-most takeaways in the NFL just one year after creating the fewest.

New defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile had a tremendous season in his first stint as a DC in the NFL, which should give other teams hope about their first-time OC’s and DC’s.

Last year, no one knew quite what to expect, but here’s what I wrote in my Jaguars 2025 preview:

It’s difficult to know for sure what defense he plans on playing exactly, but he’s been exposed to some of the best in recent seasons.

He was the linebackers coach for the Dolphins from 2020-23. During that time, he worked under Brian Flores, who likes to do some crazy sh*t, and Vic Fangio, whose scheme many believe is the answer to the modern passing game.

Then last year, he was the Packers linebackers coach under Jeff Hafley, whose use of disguise and simulated pressures turned the Packers into a ball-hawking defense that was one of the best in the league.

Campanile appears equipped to bring a modern-day defense to Jacksonville. That, in of itself, could help turn the Jaguars around on this side of the ball.

I think that’s a relatively accurate description of what ended up happening last season as Campanile seemed to mix in a little bit of everything.

The Jaguars ranked 9th in split safety looks according to of MatchQuarters. That’s the Fangio influence.

They ranked 5th in cover-2 usage, 13th in cover-0 usage, and 5th in 6-man pressures. (The Flores influence).

They ranked 12th in sim pressure percentage (the Hafley influence).

This is not a humble brag to say I made a somewhat accurate prediction last year, by the way (I’ve been wrong plenty of times before, for the record). But coaches coach what they know and what they’ve experienced. My hunch last year was that he would lean on the schemes of the systems he’d been exposed to prior to joining the Jaguars. Surprise surprise, that’s what he did.

Key Additions

RB Ameer Abdullah
RB Chris Rodriguez
TE Nate Boerkircher (2nd Rd, 56th Overall)
TE Tanner Koziol (5th Rd, 164th Overall)
OG Emmanuel Pregnon (3rd Rd, 88th Overall)

DL Ruke Orhorhoro
DL Albert Regis (3rd Rd, 81st Overall)
EDGE Wesley Williams (4th Rd, 119th Overall)
S Jalen Huskey (3rd Rd, 100th Overall)

Key Losses

RB Travis Etienne
WR Dyami Brown
WR Tim Patrick
TE Johnny Mundt

DL Maason Smith
DL Austin Johnson
EDGE Dawuane Smoot
EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah
LB Devin Lloyd
CB Greg Newsome II
S Andrew Wingard

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Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Can Trevor Lawrence finally put it together multiple seasons in a row?
There is no question that Trevor Lawrence played the quarterback position better last year than he has at any point in his NFL career.

It culminated in the final 6 games of the season where he completed 63% of his passes for 1,600 yards (8.3 yards per attempt), with 15 TD passes, just 1 interception, and a 113.2 passer rating. He also ran for 149 yards and 4 touchdowns during that span.

The Jags won all 6 of those games. They’d win their final 8 on their way to a 13-4 record and the AFC South division title.

But one of the biggest reasons for Lawrence’s success was that Liam Coen did a great job of putting him in position to succeed. He gave him all the answers to the test and created tons of clearly-defined reads. It seemed like Lawrence had somewhere to go with the ball when he hit his back foot just about every time he dropped back.

Jacksonville’s Week 16 win over the Broncos in Denver was the peak of the Coen-Lawrence marriage. You can check out that breakdown here:

While we have probably never seen Lawrence perform at as high of a level as he did last year under Coen, we have seem him play very well at different times throughout his career. He’s never really been able to do it over long stretches (or consecutive seasons), though.

So have things really changed for the Jaguars’ franchise quarterback? We’ll find out in 2026.

Where is Travis Hunter going to play?
One of the reasons the Jaguars traded up to draft Travis Hunter last year is because he’s conceivably equivalent to having two players, a receiver and a cornerback. No one has played both ways consistently in the NFL for a long time, and Jacksonville figured they had someone special in Hunter. Perhaps the Shohei Ohtani of the NFL.

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Head Coach: Kellen Moore
Offensive Coordinator: Doug Nussmeier
Defensive Coordinator: Brandon Staley
Special Teams Coordinator: Phil Galiano

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 6-11)

The Saints started last season 1-8 and seemed like they were on the fast track to a top draft pick. Then they went 5-3 over their final 8 games and positioned themselves to be a legitimate contender for the NFC South division title in 2026.

The easy explanation for the turnaround would be the play of rookie QB Tyler Shough, who took over the starting role for the final 9 games of the season and led the Saints to a 5-4 record during that stretch.

He did play really well (more on that below). But the defense also turned things around in the back half of the year. They went from allowing 27 points and 333 yards per game through their 1-8 start to allowing just 17.5 points and 262 yards per game.

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A big reason for that was the pass rush, led by ageless wonder Cam Jordan and former #2 overall pick Chase Young. Jordan had his best season in 4 years, including 8 sacks over those final 8 games. Young had a career year with 10 sacks, including 7 over the final 8 games.

Getting two edge rushers to average nearly a sack a game for half the season will do wonders for any defense. And both will be back in 2026 for year 2 in defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s system.

Key Additions

RB Travis Etienne
WR Jordyn Tyson (1st Rd, 8th Overall)
WR Bryce Lance (4th Rd, 136th Overall)
TE Noah Fant
TE Oscar Delp (3rd Rd, 73rd Overall)
LG David Edwards
OG Jeremiah Wright (4th Rd, 132nd Overall)

DL Christen Miller (2nd Rd, 42nd Overall)
EDGE Anfernee Jennings
EDGE Tyree Wilson
LB Kaden Elliss
CB Martin Emerson
S Lorenzo Styles (5th Rd, 172nd Overall)

Key Losses

TE/FB Taysom Hill
WR Dante Pettis
TE Foster Moreau
TE Jack Stoll
C Luke Fortner

DL Jonathan Bullard
DL Jonah Williams
LB Demario Davis
CB Alontae Taylor

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Is Tyler Shough the real deal?
As I wrote earlier this summer, you can make a very strong argument that Tyler Shough had a better rookie season than any of the class of 2025 quarterbacks. He was certainly the most seasoned from the pocket:

Shough has just about every trait you’d want in a quarterback. He’s 6’5”, has a strong arm, and can move well for his size:

There are still some issues with his game that need refinement. For instance, while he isn’t wildly inaccurate, his ball placement could use some improvement. He’s also a little over-reactive to pressure at times.

But the bottom line is that Kellen Moore has a lot to work with when it comes to Shough. And when he entered the lineup last season, the Saints offense got better.

Shough was 5-4 as the starter, but he started to really pick up the pace over his final 5 games. During that stretch, he completed nearly 70% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt (both of which are really good). He had a 5-2 TD-INT ratio, a 99.1 passer rating, and ran for 135 yards and 3 touchdowns over that span. The Saints went 4-1 to finish the season.

Overall, New Orleans should be excited about what they saw from Shough.

Do the Saints have enough on offense around Shough to take the next step?
I think the answer is yes? But we’ll see.

Last year, the Saints had a bottom-5 run game, and their leading rusher (Alvin Kamara) had just 471 yards, 1 TD, and averaged a mere 3.6 yards per carry in 11 games.

New Orleans addressed their rushing attack by signing Travis Etienne this offseason. Etienne rushed for 1,107 yards last year in Jacksonville and has eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground in 3 of the last 4 seasons. The combination of Etienne with Kamara is a clear upgrade over just leaning on Kamara as the feature back at this point in his career.

At receiver, the Saints added a dynamic weapon in Jordyn Tyson with the 8th overall pick. Many believed he might have been the best receiver in this year’s draft. The risk with him is that he has a concerning injury history.

And you can say the same thing about the receiver he’ll be paired with in New Orleans in Chris Olave. That 1-2 punch has the ceiling of being one of the best in the league. Durability is such a huge part of the equation though.

And that’s why I said I “think” the answer is yes. On paper it’s a definitive yes, but the injury history of the weapons around Shough still make this a huge mystery.

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Are we witnessing a Brandon Staley resurgence?
Staley has had a wild career so far. He was everyone’s darling as the next young “it” defensive coach in 2020 after leading the Rams to the top-ranked defense in points and yards allowed.

That quickly got him hired as the Chargers Head Coach from 2021 to most of 2023. Unfortunately for Staley, despite his “defensive guru” status, his defenses ranked 29th, 21st, and 24th in points.

He was fired after a 2023 Week 15 game where his defense allowed 42 first-half points to Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders on their way to a 63-21 loss.

That turned Staley into a bit of a punch line, and he had to wait things out as an assistant coach on the 49ers’ staff a year later before taking the Saints DC role in 2025.

And last year, things started off about as ugly as they finished with the Chargers. The Saints ranked 24th in points allowed through their first 9 games as they started the season 1-8.

But as mentioned above, they turned things around and allowed just 17.5 points per game over their final 8 games. Pressure seemed to be a big part of the equation with Cam Jordan and Chase Young leading the way.

Schematically, Staley went away from what he had done traditionally. In the past, he leaned on more split-safety looks, but last year, the Saints played the second-highest rate of single-high coverage according to of MatchQuarters. We’ll see if that trend continues in 2026.

The bottom line, though, is that the Saints finished with the 4th-best passing defense, the 6th best defense in terms of yards per play, and the 3rd-ranked defense on third down.

No one is talking much about the Saints defense entering 2026. But it seemed like the biggest reason they had success is that the players got used to playing and executing in Staley’s system over time. The hope in New Orleans is that year 2 could provide even more improvement.

2026 Outlook

Based on the way the Saints seemed to figure things out on both sides of the ball in the second half of last season, and based on the NFC South being wide open, this team has a real shot of taking the division for the first time since 2020.

• Can the Bears re-create their 2025 magic?

• Will Micah Parsons be as dynamic when he returns?

• Can Kevin O’Connell do it again with Kyler Murray?

• Can the Lions stay healthy?

I hope you enjoy!

Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski
Offensive Coordinator: Tommy Rees
Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich
Special Teams Coordinator: Craig Aukerman

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 8-9)

Mediocre. That’s what the Falcons have been for years, at best. And that’s what they were a year ago. The lack of growth over the last two season, and a series of questionable front-office decisions, ultimately led to the firing of both head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot.

2025 was so frustrating because Atlanta entered the season with some promise. Michael Penix, Jr.’s performance in his 3 starts to end the 2024 season were highly encouraging. He may have been a rookie, but he played with an impressive amount of maturity, showing consistent timing, processing, and anticipation.

But last season got off to an uneven start for Penix, which isn’t a surprise considering it was his second year and the league had all offseason to adjust.

Still, the Falcons started 3-2 and had a big win over the Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 6. They seemed like they were ready to turn the corner.

Then the wheels fell off.

They lost 5 games in a row. And along the way, Penix suffered another season-ending knee injury. Atlanta put together some decent football at the end of the year to get to 8-9, but it ultimately wasn’t enough. They missed out on the playoffs for the 8th straight season, and Arthur Blank cleaned house.

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Key Additions

QB Tua Tagovailoa
RB Brian Robinson
WR Olamide Zaccheaus
WR Jahan Dotson
WR Zachariah Branch (3rd Rd, 79th Overall)
TE Austin Hooper
RT Jawaan Taylor
C Corey Levin

DL Maason Smith
DL Chris Williams
DL Da’Shawn Hand
EDGE Samson Ebukam
EDGE Azeez Ojulari
EDGE Cameron Thomas
LB Christian Harris
LB Kendal Daniels (4th Rd, 134th Overall)
CB Avieon Terrell (2nd Rd, 48th Overall)
CB Darnay Holmes
S Darren Hall
S Sydney Brown

Key Losses

RB Tyler Allgeier
WR Darnell Mooney
WR David Sills
WR Casey Washington
TE Teagan Quitoriano
RT Elijah Wilkinson

DL David Onyemata
DL Ruke Orhorhoro
DL Kentavius Street
EDGE Leonard Floyd
EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
LB Kaden Elliss
LB Ronnie Harrison
CB Dee Alford

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Penix or Tua?
I hate to say it because injuries in football absolutely suck. But it kind of feel like we’re going to see both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix, Jr. this season regardless of who wins the quarterback competition coming out of training camp.

Both have pretty significant injury histories. But given the fact that Penix still hasn’t been cleared to practice fully and Tua will be getting more reps early on (although he’s dealing with a slight back issue currently), it seems like Tua is the more likely Week 1 starter.

You can make the argument that Tua is a better fit in new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s timing and rhythm passing game, because that’s exactly the type of quarterback that he is.

In fact, timing and rhythm are essential to Tua’s game. During his 4 years under Mike McDaniel, he was two entirely different quarterbacks if he was able to get the ball out on time versus if he had to hold the ball.

On throws where he was able to release the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, Tua had a 55-17 TD-INT ratio and a 106.3 passer rating according to data from Pro Football Focus.

On throws where it took him more than 2.5 seconds to get rid of the ball, he had a 39-28 TD-INT ratio and an 87.0 passer rating.

For context, that 106.3 passer rating would have placed him right behind MVP Matthew Stafford last season as the 3rd-highest rated passer in the NFL.

That 87.0 rating would have put him at 28th in the NFL, slightly ahead of Spencer Rattler.

Quite the difference.

Penix does play a similar style of quarterback to Tua in terms of his ability to throw with timing and anticipation, and I think he could absolutely thrive in Stefanski’s system.

Just look at a throw like this:

Look at where Drake London was in his route when Penix had already made his decision and started his throwing motion:

The key difference between Penix and Tua is that Penix is more physically gifted as a thrower. He can attack downfield and at the intermediate level with ease, which stretches the defense:

Stefanski should be able to attack at all 3 levels and do more in the passing game with Penix.

While Penix has the talent and ability to be the long-term solution in Atlanta if he can stay healthy, that’s a big “if.” His injury history is scary (5 major knee and shoulder injuries). We don’t know if he’ll be ready for Week 1. If he is, we don’t know if he’ll be able to play a full 17-game schedule.

And at the end of the day, that’s why the Falcons signed Tua. He’s a pretty decent option if Penix can’t be in the lineup every Sunday since they do have such similar styles of play, arm strength aside.

Regardless of who wins the job, though, I think we’ll see a fair amount of each QB this year.

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Can the Falcons’ run game carry them to the playoffs?
It seems like a crime that the Falcons only ranked 11th in the NFL with a 45.5% run frequency rate last year.

Bijan Robinson might be the best running back in football. He needs to be fed the rock as much as possible:

Kevin Stefanski traditionally had been a coach who leaned on the run game in the past. In his first year as an offensive coordinator (2019 with the Vikings), he ran the ball at the 4th-highest clip in the NFL. That trend continued in his first three years as the Browns Head Coach, as Cleveland finished 4th, 6th, and 8th in run-play frequency.

Over the last 3 years, however, those numbers dropped off (17th, 32nd, 25th).

Personnel was the most likely reason for this. In 2019, Stefanski had Dalvin Cook in his prime. Then he had a healthy Nick Chubb from 2020-22. Chubb’s gruesome 2023 injury left Stefanski without a true bell cow in the backfield for the next 3 years. Wisely, he pivoted and put more on the stronger (relative term) areas of his offense.

He won’t have those same issues in Atlanta with Robinson in the backfield.

The Falcons’ offensive line has also been one of the best in football over the last few years, and 4 of their 5 starters are returning from last season. Not to mention, Atlanta is a little thin at receiver behind Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Add that to the quarterback situation, and I think the safe bet is that Stefanski will get back to his 2019-22 roots and operate through the run game as much as possible.

Remember, he’s a 2-time NFL Coach of the Year, so I imagine Stefanski will figure out the best ways to maximize the personnel that he has on this offense.

Can Jeff Ulbrich’s defense pick up where they left off?
Normally when a head coach gets fired, his entire staff gets replaced. That didn’t happen in Atlanta as Stefanski retained defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

He’s been a successful defensive coordinator in just about every season that he’s been one. The lone exceptions are his first year with the Jets in 2021 when he had nothing to work with, and in 2024 when he was clearly spread too thin due to unexpectedly having the interim head coaching job thrown onto his plate after Robert Saleh was fired just 5 games in.

Ulbrich’s calling card has been his ability to generate a pass rush. The Jets ranked 7th in sacks in 2022 and 2023 and then 11th in 2024. Last year in Atlanta, the Falcons set a franchise record with 57 sacks and ranked 2nd in the NFL. That was an area that had had been pretty dismal for the Falcons in recent history.

Ulbrich did it in a combination of ways last season. He attacked with pressure schemes as Atlanta finished 2nd in the NFL in blitz percentage.

He also leaned on a young group of pass rushers. The top 3 players on the team in sacks were rookie edge rusher James Pearce (10.5 sacks), 2nd-year D-tackle Brandon Dorlus (8.5 sacks), and rookie edge rusher Jalon Walker (5.5 sacks).

The big question, of course, is what is Pearce’s status this season? Due to some more alleged off-the-field stuff, his ability to play this season is somewhat in the hands of the legal system and/or Roger Goodell.

The Falcons brought in some reinforcements this offseason but no needle-movers. It will likely be on fellow 2nd-year edge rusher Jalon Walker to take a big leap in 2026 if Pearce can’t be on the field.

2026 Outlook

The Falcons should be competitive in the NFC South this season. I’ll keep throwing it out there that this division is wide open and all 4 teams have a shot at it, because it’s true.

Atlanta needs a bunch of things to go right, though. They need the quarterback situation to be steady. Preferably, Penix will become the guy, but whatever happens, they need some level of stability and consistency. They also need things to break their way on defense, where there is still a ton of uncertainty due to the James Pearce situation.

Head Coach: Todd Bowles
Offensive Coordinator: Zac Robinson
Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles
Special Teams Coordinator: Danny Smith

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 8-9)

The Buccaneers started the season 6-2, Baker Mayfield was a big part of the MVP discussion, and Tampa appeared to be serious contenders in the NFC.

Then they fell off a cliff. The Bucs lost 7 of their final 9 games, allowing the division title and a playoff spot to slip out of their hands.

Offensively, the passing game took a step back from the first half of the season to the second as Baker Mayfield (and the O-line and receiving corps) battled through injuries. Tampa went from averaging 224.9 passing yards per game to just 189. They also turned the ball over 11 times over their final 9 games after doing so just 5 times through their first 8.

Defensively, the Bucs went from allowing 20.3 points per game to 25.9. This didn’t look like your typical Todd Bowles defense, as there were several games in the back half of the year where they were just not competitive.

You can’t help but get the feeling that 2026 will be a huge season for determining what this franchise will look like for the next 5 years.

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Key Additions

RB Kenneth Gainwell
WR Ted Hurst (3rd Rd, 84th Overall)
WR David Sills
LT Justin Skule
OG Billy Schrauth (5th Rd, 160th Overall)

DL A’Shawn Robinson
DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DL Demonte Capehart (5th Rd, 155th Overall)
EDGE Rueben Bain, Jr. (1st Rd, 15th Overall)
EDGE Al-Quadin Muhammad
LB Alex Anzalone
LB Christian Rozeboom
LB Josiah Trotter (2nd Rd, 46th Overall)
CB Keionte Scott (4th Rd, 116th Overall)
S Ifeatu Melifonwu

Key Losses

RB Rachaad White
WR Mike Evans
WR Sterling Shepard
LG Michael Jordan
RT Charlie Heck

DL Logan Hall
DL Greg Gaines
EDGE Haason Reddick
LB Lavonte David
LB Deion Jones
CB Jamel Dean
CB Kindle Vildor
S Christian Izien

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Will the fierce Buccaneers defense we saw for years return in 2026?
Todd Bowles is one of the best defensive minds in football and has a heck of a track record of putting together dangerous defenses. It led to a Super Bowl win 6 years ago.

Bowles leans on high-volume pressure and regularly fools opposing quarterbacks. Just take a look at the below breakdown with Sam Darnold admitting a Bowles blitz got the best of him on this pivotal play from the Bucs’ Week 5 win over the Seahawks last season:

Aside from a few moments here and there, Tampa’s defense was uncharacteristically bad last season. They’ve been trending in that direction for a couple of years now.

After ranking 7th in points allowed in 2023, they ranked 16th in 2024 and 20th last season.

The inability to generate pressure was the main culprit in 2025 as Tampa finished just 25th in pressure percentage. That’s not what you want when you’re an aggressive blitzing team like the Buccaneers are (4th in blitz % last season). If you’re going to sacrifice defenders in coverage, you better get home. Last year, they didn’t. And that played a significant role in the Bucs allowing the 9th-most completions of 20 yards or more.

Tampa sought to correct this during the offseason. They added edge rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad, who had a break-out season in 2025 with 11.0 sacks. That was 4 more than anyone on the Bucs had last year.

The Bucs also added Rueben Bain, Jr. with the 15th overall pick. Bain is a thick human being who wins with power, leverage, and relentless pursuit of the quarterback:

He plays like a boulder rolling down a hill, picking up momentum with each inch of ground that he covers, making him harder and harder to stop:

While the size of his arms were a topic of conversation during draft season, that doesn’t stop him from being really good with his hands:

He’s also a very good defender in the run game, which will fit right in with a defense that has been stout vs. the run in just about every season since Bowles went to Tampa:

The Bucs also re-vamped their linebacking corps after losing Lavonte David to retirement. They added Alex Anzalone and Christian Rozeboom in free agency and drafted Josiah Trotter with the 46th overall pick. The Buccaneers spend a good amount of time in base personnel, so it’s critical that they have a deep group of linebackers, which they certainly do now.

Hopefully they can figure things out with defensive tackle Vita Vea’s contract situation. If they do, this feels like a year where the defense is going to be able to get back to being a more typical Todd Bowles defense.

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Will Baker Mayfield make the Buccaneers pay?
I mean this in the most literal sense. Mayfield and the Bucs weren’t able to come to an agreement on a contract extension before training camp, which was the deadline that Mayfield imposed for getting a deal done.

He delivered a warning that the Bucs just cost themselves some dollars because he’s going to have a big year:

“If you’ve waited this long to take care of your franchise quarterback, that’s too bad, because it’s only going to get worse from here. I’m going to have a really good year.”

That’s a threat the Buccaneers should hope will come true because a big year at the most important position, combined with their improved defense, could mean a huge year for the franchise.

Mayfield has revitalized his career in Tampa and has shown himself to be one of the better quarterbacks in the league at times. In 2024, he completed over 70% of his passes for 4,500 yards, 41 TD passes, and a 106.8 passer rating.

He has high-level traits, from his arm strength to his ability to play the position with nuance. Just check out how he recognized and handled the blitz on this game-winning drive vs. the Jets in Week 3 last season:

As mentioned above, Baker was in the MVP discussion during the first half of last season. Through his first 9 games, he had a 16-2 TD-INT ratio, a 99.2 passer rating, and the Bucs had a 6-3 record.

Over his final 8 games, however, he had just a 10-9 TD-INT ratio, a 78.9 passer rating, and the Bucs went 2-6 during that stretch.

It’s fair to say that injuries played a significant role. He dealt with injuries to his knee and both shoulders but played through them.

Hopefully that won’t be the case this year. If Mayfield can stay healthy and get back to his 2024 and first-half-of-2025 form, the Bucs might be emptying the piggy bank to give him his money.

For what it’s worth, that would be a better outcome than Mayfield having a bad season and Tampa looking elsewhere for a new QB in 2027.

Will the loss of Mike Evans be too significant for the Buccaneers to overcome?
Losing a receiver like Mike Evans is a big deal. Yes, he’s closer to the end of his career than the beginning, but the things he does for a quarterback are tough to replace.

Above all else, he’s a huge target (6’5”) who can still win 1-on-1’s consistently. He can win at the line of scrimmage:

He can win downfield on contested catches:

He thrives on 3rd down and in the red zone, which are those situations where the defense tends to be more aggressive and deceptive with their looks. They might be disguising coverage or bringing intricate blitzes. And it’s nice as a quarterback to be able to say, “Whatever, I’m just going to throw it up to my 6’5” receiver and play above the defense regardless of what they’re doing.”

Even at this point in his career, Evans still garners extra attention from opposing defenses. In the game he got hurt last season against the Lions, their entire defensive game plan was built around doubling Evans on third down and in obvious passing situations:

In general, that creates opportunities elsewhere for other receivers.

The okay news for Tampa is that they got a little bit used to life without Evans last year as he missed 9 games due to injury.

Their traditional #2 receiver, Chris Godwin, was battling back from an injury the year before and also missed 8 total games.

There were 4 games where both Evans and Godwin were out last year, and it didn’t really slow down the Bucs offense a ton. They still averaged 27 points in those games.

I’ll also throw in that promising young receiver Jalen McMillan, who caught 8 touchdown passes the year before as a rookie, missed the first 13 games of the season with a neck injury suffered in preseason.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka certainly helped keep the passing game afloat with Godwin and Evans not at 100% and McMillan out of the lineup. While his production slowed as the season progressed, I expect him to make a big jump this season. Hopefully Godwin and McMillan will be healthy enough to contribute more as well.

The Bucs sought to replace Evans’ size in this year’s draft by selecting 6’4” receiver Ted Hurst in the 3rd round. Hurst can be a vertical threat for this team (ran a 4.42 40-yard dash) and can hopefully replace some of the production that Evans has provided over the years.

Also, don’t sleep on running back Kenneth Gainwell, who caught 73 passes out of the backfield last year and was basically the Steelers’ 2nd-best receiver.

2026 Outlook

I expect a return to the top of the division for the Buccaneers this season. The NFC South is still very wide open, but Tampa has the most talent of any of the four teams. If Mayfield can stay healthy and that defense can return to form (which it looks like they can on paper), we should see this team back in the playoffs.

Head Coach: Dave Canales
Offensive Coordinator: Brad Idzik
Defensive Coordinator: Ejiro Evero
Special Teams Coordinator: Tracy Smith

2025 Summary (W-L Record: 8-9)

The Panthers have shown steady progress since their 2-15 season in 2023. They went 5-12 in 2024 and won the NFC South with an 8-9 record last year. Dave Canales has done a great job of turning this franchise around and almost led the Panthers to an improbable Wild Card win over the Rams last season.

Carolina’s inconsistency last season made them a tough team to figure out, though. They lost games to teams like the Cardinals and got swept by the Saints. Yet they beat the Packers in Lambeau in Week 9 and the Rams at home in Week 13.

Here’s a look at how they clinched that win over Green Bay:

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The Panthers had an easier path to the playoffs given that they played in the NFC South and were able to make it in with a losing record. Still, it was a milestone achievement and a sign of how far the organization has come in two years. The question this season will be whether or not they can make a more substantial jump and separate themselves from the middle of the pack.

Key Additions

WR John Metchie
WR Chris Brazzell (3rd Rd, 83rd Overall)
C Luke Fortner
LT Rasheed Walker
RT Monroe Freeling (1st Rd, 19th Overall)
OT Stone Forsythe
C Sam Hecht (5th Rd, 144th Overall)

DL Lee Hunter (2nd Rd, 49th Overall)
EDGE Jaelan Phillips
LB Devin Lloyd
CB Will Lee (4th Rd, 129th Overall)
S Zakee Wheatley (5th Rd, 151st Overall)

Key Losses

RB Rico Dowdle
WR Hunter Renfrow
C Cade Mays
RG Austin Corbett
OT Yosh Nijman
OG Jake Curhan

DL A’Shawn Robinson
EDGE D.J. Wonnum
LB Christian Rozeboom
LB Krys Barnes

Biggest Questions Entering 2026

Will injuries derail the Panthers’ season before it even starts?
To have success in the NFL, teams need a lot of things to go right. That includes getting lucky in the health department.

The Panthers, so far, are getting hammered in this area.

Starting left tackle Ikem Ekwonu ruptured his patellar tendon in the Panthers’ Wild Card playoff loss to the Rams last season. Terrible timing. It’s unclear when exactly he’ll return this season.

Starting right tackle Taylor Moton has a blood clot in his lung. His return to the field is TBD.

Defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton is battling back from neck surgery with the timeline of his return unknown as well. His counterpart on the D-line, Bobby Brown, isn’t in as serious of shape but is still dealing with a hamstring injury.

Promising second-year edge rusher Nick Scourton tore his ACL on the first day of training camp and is done for the year.

3rd-round wide receiver Chris Brazzell hurt his knee a few days later and is also now done for the season.

This is the part of the game that absolutely stinks. And it’s impossible to predict who will be the luckiest in this department. Right now, the Panthers aren’t off to a great start.

What is Bryce Young?
Young had a miserable rookie year and then bounced back in year 2 from an early-season benching to salvage his career.

Year 3 saw a steady progression from his first two seasons. Young had career highs in completion percentage (63.6%), yards (3,011), TD passes (23), and passer rating (87.8). He’s gotten better each year.

Young also has a flair for the dramatic. His 12 career fourth-quarter game-winning drives are the most in the NFL since he entered the league. And he played really well in the Panthers’ playoff loss to the Rams, almost leading Carolina to a stunning upset.

In the vacuum of his career, Young has shown marked improvement from when he first entered the league.

In the context of the rest of the NFL, though, the Panthers still need more.

Their passing game finished 26th in the NFL last season. They ranked 21st in completions of 20 yards or more. They were the 25th best 3rd-down offense.

The steady improvement is nice, but at some point, Young and the passing game need to make a bigger jump. He has some high level traits from a mental and processing standpoint, so a big leap is possible at any moment.

Is this the year he can put it all together? Can the rapport he clearly had last season with rookie Tet McMillan blossom further and possibly take this passing game to greater heights in 2026?

That’ll be one big thing to watch with this team.

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What will the O-line look like?
As mentioned above, the Panthers will be without their tackles, Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton, for an unspecified period of time this season. It’s hard to understate how big those losses could be.

Moton has been a very good tackle throughout his career and Ekwonu seems to have found himself to a certain extent after some early-career struggles.

It seems like the Panthers will roll with free agent signing Rasheed Walker at left tackle and this year’s 19th overall pick Monroe Freeling at right tackle. That’s not a bad plan-b to start the season, but there’s still some unknown there, especially with starting a rookie at tackle.

And that’s not the only new face up front. The Panthers added Luke Fortner at center. Two new tackles and a center… That’s significant change.

The Panthers also added Stone Forsythe (who played in over 70% of snaps last season) and drafted Sam Hecht in the 5th round. They did a good job of accounting for the changes on their O-line by dedicating a lot of resources to the area this offseason and building out their depth. But it’s also an acknowledgement that there’s a lot of uncertainty.

As we all know, good offensive football starts with the men up front. The Panthers want to be a running football team (They were 10th in the league with a 45.6% run frequency rate last year). But whatever they will be on offense might be dictated by what they’re capable of doing up front.

Will the pass rush finally be better?
Talent has certainly been an issue, but defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero hasn’t been able to get the pass rush going since arriving in Carolina in 2023.

In his first year, they ranked 30th in pressure percentage and 32nd in sacks. In 2024, they were dead last in pressure percentage and 29th in sacks. Last year, they were 31st in pressure percentage and 28th in sacks.

Like the other side of the ball, the men up front dictate so much. It’s hard to have a good defense without a good pass rush.

Carolina added edge rusher Jaelan Phillips in that effort this offseason, but I still don’t think it’s enough. It certainly doesn’t help that they just lost second-year edge rusher Nick Scourton for the season, as mentioned above.

Maybe Evero will be a little more aggressive with his pressure schemes this year like he was in 2023 and ‘24 to find a way to manufacture a pass rush?

After all, that the secondary is really good. Even without a pass rush, they somehow managed to limit big plays through the air last season (7th fewest completions of 20 yards or more). They have two really good cornerbacks in Michael Jackson and Jaycee Horn (when healthy).

So perhaps Evero will feel comfortable taking a man out of coverage more often to join the pass rush seeing as the back end of the defense can hold its own?

Either way, they’ll need to figure out something. Even with a good secondary, having a bottom-of-the-league pass rush can only get you so far.

2026 Outlook

The benefit of playing in the NFC South is that it’s wide open. No one would be surprised by any of the four teams taking home the division title this year.

The Panthers certainly have their questions, with health being at the top of that list. To me, their success this year will be determined by that offensive line and whether or not Bryce Young can take a major leap.

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