Chiefs (14-2) vs. Bills (13-3) AFC Championship Game Preview

Chiefs Offense vs. Bills Defense:
STATS KCO BUFDNEW
Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense:
STATS KCD BUFONEW
When these teams played in Week 6, Josh Allen had arguably his worst game of the season, completing just 14 of 27 passes for 122 yards. For one day he looked like pre-2020 Josh Allen, missing throws and playing with a frenetic tempo in the pocket.

The Chiefs Defense did what they generally like to do in that game. That is, play various types of man coverage, disrupt receivers at the line of scrimmage, and disrupt Josh Allen’s decision-making with disguise and late movement. Not to mention, they attacked with several blitzes. For the most part, they had success. But as has been the case against the Chiefs Defense this season, there were opportunities for big plays. Buffalo just couldn’t connect on them.

On the below example, focus on Stefon Diggs, who was aligned in the slot with Tyrann Mathieu matched up on him.

Bills Chiefs Preview Feature
Screen Shot Courtesy of NFL.com Gamepass

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That was a big miss by Allen.

Not that Tyrann Mathieu in the slot against any receiver is a matchup the Bills want to target. But expect to see Buffalo take downfield shots to Diggs out of the slot like they did on the above play. The Chiefs generally don’t have their cornerbacks travel with receivers. They keep Bashaud Breeland on the outside to the right, Charvarius Ward on the outside to the left, and mix it up in the slot. Don’t be surprised to see the Bills go 4-wide to keep those corners on the outside and then target Beasley and Diggs in the slot against man coverage.

Another fair expectation is that Buffalo will see plenty of blitzes from Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, whose defense ranked 9th in blitz frequency in 2020. In that Week 6 matchup when Josh Allen was not at his best, one of the opportunities he missed came against a Cover-0 blitz in the middle of the field where the Chiefs actually blew the coverage. Focus on running back Devin Singletary out of the backfield.

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Not only did the Bills miss an opportunity for a big play, they didn’t even get a completion out of this. Luckily for Buffalo, Allen has been a more precise quarterback throughout 2020 than he was in that game. He’ll need to be on Sunday to handle Kansas City’s disguises and pressure schemes.

On the other side of the ball, it looks like Patrick Mahomes will play, which should bring a sigh of relief from both Chiefs fans and fans of the NFL in general. Mahomes completes one of the best final-4’s of quarterbacks we’ve ever seen on Championship Sunday.

We wrote about how these two teams match up schematically based on that Week 6 game. Things have changed for both since then, but it still offers a good view into how the Chiefs and Bills will likely attack each other. You can read about it here.

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