The Colts play a lot of split-safety zone looks to try and prevent big plays. They were somewhat successful in this area this season, allowing the 4th fewest completions of 40 yards or more in the NFL. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to just shut down the Bills passing game and prevent big plays through the air. The Colts were bottom-10 in the NFL in 20+ yard completions allowed. Those are largely intermediate-to-deep throws, and that’s an area in which Josh Allen has excelled throughout 2020.

This is not 2019. Allen is a different quarterback now. He has the precision to consistently pick defenses apart underneath and at the intermediate levels. And we’ve seen him beat those 2-safety looks at the intermediate-to-deep level time and time again this season.

And this play. Again, great job by Allen of holding the CB in the flat to open up the 9-route on the outside. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/9q7tzaTd6u

— Football Film Room (@FB_FilmRoom) January 8, 2021

Worth another look from the end zone angle. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/voIqwjT1IM

— Football Film Room (@FB_FilmRoom) January 8, 2021

Here’s a look at how the Bills and Colts match up head-to-head:

Bills Offense vs. Colts Defense

Colts Offense vs. Bills Defense

For the Colts to have a chance, they will need to lean on what has worked in recent weeks. In their last 6 games, they have fed the ball to rookie running back Jonathan Taylor. He’s rewarded them with 741 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 6.23 yards per carry during that span. This is probably the most meaningful area where the Colts might have an advantage over Buffalo, as you can see above. And successfully running the ball will help Indianapolis keep Josh Allen and the Bills’ red hot offense on the sidelines.

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